Every other site tells you what to think.
We give you the tools to think for yourself.
Most CFB analytics platforms give you someone else's picks, someone else's grades, someone else's black-box model. Fourth Down Data gives you the raw analytics, the transparent methodology, and the tools to build your own edge.
The Difference
What others do
Pre-packaged picks and predictionsWhat we do
A 59-feature model with adjustable weights — build your own lineProprietary grades you can't verify
EPA computed independently from 155,000+ raw plays. Full methodology published.
One-size-fits-all analysis
10 situational EPA contexts, team DNA profiles, and a scenario builder with 12 years of data
Pay for picks
Free tools. We don't sell picks because picks aren't the product — understanding is.
"Trust us, we're experts"
Here's our model, here are the weights, here's our ATS record. Judge for yourself.
Static articles updated weekly
Interactive tools you use every Saturday. Build lines, test systems, compare matchups.
What You Get
The Vault
Backtest any betting scenario across 12 seasons and 19,000+ games.
The War Room
Head-to-head matchup analyzer with EPA, betting, and predicted spreads.
The Archive
Find historical games with similar EPA profiles to any current matchup.
EPA Rankings
Independently computed efficiency metrics across 10 situational contexts.
Team DNA
Radar chart identity profiles showing strengths and vulnerabilities.
Conference Dashboard
Power rankings, cross-conference ATS, and EPA comparisons.
Betting Insights
ATS records, line movement angles, and weekly trend analysis.
Rest & Travel
Bye week edges, short week impact, and travel distance analysis.
840 Venues
Capacity-scaled home field advantages built into every prediction.
Built on Transparency
We publish our methodology. We show our model's real performance — including where it falls short. We don't hide behind "proprietary algorithms."
If you want to know how we compute EPA, read our methodology page. If you want to see how the model actually performed ATS, check the Model Performance page. Transparency isn't a feature — it's our foundation.